Been there, done that.
Back in February 2020 we first discussed perovskite solar here on Off Grid Ham, and then again in July 2023. What has happened since then? At first glance the latest news seems frustrating and stagnant. The chatter continues but several years on we still have no working product on the consumer market. Is perovskite solar the “vapor ware” of off grid amateur radio, as this blog previously suggested?
Although the off grid ham radio community is agitating for this advancement, we must take a breath and gain some focus. Compared to other technological breakthroughs, perovskite is in its infancy and it’s too soon to call it a dead end.
What is perovskite solar?
For those who are just tuning in, perovskite solar is a new solar technology based on perovskite crystal structures. Without getting into a very deep chemistry lesson, the super-simple explanation is that perovskite solar is much more efficient, lighter, and smaller than conventional silicon-based solar. Perovskite’s potential is amazing. Efficiency runs around 30% compared to 17-22% for silicon. Scientists are also developing a perovskite-silicon hybrid solar panel.
What’s holding up progress?
Why isn’t perovskite solar available yet? Engineers need to resolve a few serious technical roadblocks before radio amateurs will even have a chance at deploying them in the field.
First, there’s durability. Perovskite solar cells break down quickly when exposed to light and voltage. Obviously, this is a very huge deal. Conventional solar panels typically have a service life of two or more decades. Perovskite panels in their current iteration are spent after only about 2.5 years, and that’s under controlled lab conditions.
Second, perovskite solar panels contain lead. At the end of the panel’s already way too short service life, that lead will have to be properly recovered. While recycling lead is not an new technology, it does add to the logistical challenges of dismantling these solar panels. On the manufacturing side, the use of lead will require compliance with environmental standards that would otherwise not apply.
The biggest problem of them all.
Once researchers resolve those problems, there is one more: Manufacturing process. Silicon solar is a mature technology with a long established supply chain and manufacturing infrastructure. Perovskite would be starting from zero. It will take a long time, perhaps years, for assembly facilities and marketing channels to come on line. Add that to the research time needed to produce an initial product and it’s easy to see it could be a quite a while before perovskite solar has any significant market penetration.
Time estimates are all over the place as to when we hams will be able to buy perovskite panels. Some claims state it will only be a year or so. Others say it could be a decade or more. In reality, it’s likely closer to the latter than the former.
There’s also the possibility that perovskite solar could become obsolete by other technology before it comes to market. The longer it takes to develop a new technology, the more likely it will be “leapfrogged” by something else before it is released to the public.
It’s frustrating, but not exceptional.
Off Grid Ham readers have occasionally expressed doubt that we’ll ever see perovskite solar, claiming that the vague promises have dragged on for years with nothing to show for it. The disappointment is understandable but not unprecedented.
The first solar cell was invented in —wait for it— 1883 by Charles Fritts; other scientists proved the theory of photovoltaic conversion as early as 1839. It wasn’t until 1954 when Bell Labs developed the first practical solar panel. Between 1954 and the early 1970s the use of solar panels was limited to space exploration and scientific applications. Solar panels were slowly creeping out into the civilian consumer market starting in the 1970s, but at nearly $80.00 USD/watt (in 1970s dollars!), adoption was sparse. The efficiency of these early panels ran between 2.5%-14% compared to 17%-21% for most modern versions.
GRAPHIC COURTESY OF BLOOMBERG NEWS.
From the 1980s to approximately 2005 solar adoption increased as prices came down. Solar remained a niche market because even with prices coming down, the technology was still an expensive undertaking for the average person. In the late 2000s solar panel prices continued to drop and it became an affordable mainstream energy source.
The solar golden era begins.
Since about 2018 retail solar costs have been near or below $1.00 USD/watt. Furthermore, recent research shows that solar adoption is growing exponentially across all demographics. It’s no longer an expensive, niche energy source. Wow! We’ve come a long way!
The point of this story is that it was 71 years between the invention of the solar cell and the first practical solar panel. It took another 51 years after that for solar to become affordable enough that almost anyone could do it. That totals up at 122 years between invention and widespread & affordable consumer availability.
So while we may be impatient over the fact that perovskite has been in the works for years and we hams still can’t get our grubby little hands on one, it is a good time to give ourselves a reality check. The good news is that I highly doubt we’ll have to wait over a century for perovskite, but a decade or so is not out of line.
What should you do?
If you are holding off getting into solar thinking it will only be a little longer till perovskite come out, you’re playing a loser’s game. Not only is perovskite a big question mark at this point, conventional solar panels are crazy-cheap! Solar panels are not like smartphones where something new and better comes out every year. If you’re on the fence, jump now! Take advantage of the strong buyer’s market. For those who are already off grid, this is a great time to upgrade.
Perovskite will happen in its own time. For now, let’s enjoy what we have and not fuss over what we don’t have.
Resources.
Here is a great general overview of perovskite solar technology.
This deep and geeky 53 page Power Point goes into great detail about solar adoption and demographics.
This Off Grid Ham article from 2020 gives additional details about perovskite technology.
At least once a week I see new announcements over on the Reddit solar forums claiming perofskie panels are going to transform the solar industry and are in mass production right now or will be in a few weeks or months. I see the same thing about salt batteries and solid state batteries. None of it is true, of course. If I bother to trace back where those posts tame from they invariably turn out to have been created and distributed by some bot that eventually can be traced back to someone trying to manipulate stock prices or something like that.
Even if they do work, it could be 7 – 10 years before factories can be built that would produce them in mass quantities.
The “big thing” over in the solar power forums is solid state batteries right now. We’re seeing a few well intentioned persons (and a lot of scam-bots) telling people to hold off buying batteries because solid state batteries are just around the corner and will change everything. They certainly could, but it isn’t going to be any time soon. The first large scale factory to produce SS batteries is only now being built and won’t be in full production until mid to late 2027 at the earliest. And even then all of that production is going straight to the automobile makers for EVs. Several times a week now I’m seeing well meaning people telling others they should put off putting in solar because all of this new technology is going to be available to the general public in just a few months. Oh, well.
Meanwhile, as you pointed out, Chris, solar panels are cheap right now. This past summer I got in a pallet of 470W panels for $170 each. 5 KWH server rack style LFP batteries are down to under $1,000 each, sometimes well under that price if you shop around for deals. When i put my system in a year or so ago I was paying $1,700 each for those same batteries.
Of course all of these prices are up in the air right now. The tariffs that the incoming administration is threatening to levy on just about everything is going to have a huge impact on the prices consumers pay for, wlel, just about everything, really. The new administration has been talking about tariffs of 60% – 100% on Chinese imports. That’s going to impact everything., but especially the alternative energy industry.