Is Inflation Making Off Grid Power Too Expensive?

Everyone orders off the same menu.

Anyone who has not been living under a rock since the pandemic knows full well that pretty much everything is getting crazy expensive. That would be bad enough except very few of us have increased our income accordingly. This is not a political statement. Inflation hits everyone; there aren’t separate price lists for conservatives and liberals. An Off Grid Ham reader recently commented that prices for off grid solar equipment are going wacky high. Let’s pick apart the phenomenon of off grid energy equipment inflation and see if there is anything to this reader’s theory.

Solar panels and Wright’s Law.

It makes sense that when a product or technology is new, it’s expensive and not readily available. As it matures, the cost goes down and the product or technology becomes more common. This process is known as Wright’s Law. I’m describing a vastly simplified version here; Wright’s Law is actually quite elaborate.

Those who have been involved with off grid energy for a long time don’t need complex math or arcane economic theories to know that it’s significantly easier and cheaper to buy solar today than it was twenty or even five years ago. Solar panels that used to cost several dollars per watt are now consistently less than one dollar per watt. Availability has gone way, way up too. Solar has never been cheaper even while everything else is costing more and more.

There’s more than one link in the chain.

Of course it takes more than just solar panels to create an effective off grid power system. Lithium batteries are also subject to Wright’s Law. At one time considered exotic technology, lithium batteries are now ubiquitous. So ubiquitous, in fact, that since 1991 their cost has dropped 97 percent. I found other sources that claimed an 88% price reduction. No matter with number you go with, the conclusion is the same: lithium, like solar panels, has never been more affordable.

Surprisingly, I could not find trustworthy historical data on the cost of flooded and AGM batteries. Anecdotally, I know these types of batteries are getting crazy expensive, especially AGM batteries. In terms of price vs. overall useful service life, lithium batteries are a far better value. As the cost of lithium batteries goes down, the rationale for conventional flooded and AGM batteries becomes weaker and weaker.

Solar controllers and other supplies.

While the cost of solar panels and lithium batteries has come down, the same cannot be said of all the other gear & materials you’ll need to make off grid power possible. Solar controllers have clearly trended upward.

For example, the Morningstar TS-MPPT-45 controller costs $558.00, which is about $100 more than a decade ago. The optional monitor/meters still cost the same. Is a twenty-ish percent increase over ten years reasonable?

The Morningstar Sun Saver 10 controller is a workhorse among off grid folk and a huge seller. One of those will drain $90 from your wallet. If you want the version with low voltage disconnect, it will be $105. I have this exact same controller in my portable set up. I paid $49 for it ten years ago and that was for the low voltage disconnect version. To pay more than double that today is not encouraging!

Another hot seller, the SunGuard 4.5 amp controller, currently lists for $39. No too long ago it was $25.

One bright spot regarding controllers is that online retailers sell very inexpensive off brands. Most of these “cheap Charlie” controllers cost less than twenty dollars! This is also a direct result of Wright’s Law. Solar controllers are no longer specialty items with a narrow market. I would not depend on a low-end version for anything that really matters, but they have their place. If you only want to experiment informally with solar, or need it just once a year on Field Day, or for a kids’ science project, then a sub-twenty dollar budget controller may be a great choice. off grid energy equipment inflation

Copper wire is another item that will stress your wallet. The historical price of wire specifically is hard to define because wire comes in many types and sizes, However, the cost of copper in general tells us quite a bit. As of late August 2024, the spot price of copper is about $4.23/lb (0.45 kg). As recently as 2019 it was about $2.20/lb. So, copper has nearly doubled in five years. Perhaps not coincidentally, copper hovered at or below $3.00/lb until 2020 when the Covid pandemic started, then it increased quickly from there and never went back. It certainly does not help that more than half of all the world’s copper ore comes from areas that are politically unstable.  

Graphic courtesy of JM Bullion.

The “solar generator” factor.

Commercially made “solar generators” barely existed ten years ago. Today, they are a popular alternative to planning out a bespoke system, sourcing the components, and assembling and testing it. Disclosure: I used to think these products were ridiculous and have in the past trash-talked them, but over time they’ve won me over. The prices have come down, although they are usually more expensive than a comparable DIY system. They are a viable option for anyone who wants an out of the box, plug and play system that requires no special technical skills or knowledge. I still think “solar generator” is a hopelessly dumb term. But goofy made-up marketing buzzwords notwithstanding, the devices themselves can be worthwhile in the right situations.

The bottom line. off grid energy equipment inflation

Taking everything into consideration, has inflation hit off grid power so hard that it’s become untenable for the average ham?

The short answer is “maybe”. Although the cost of off grid power equipment has generally gone up, it hasn’t ’t gone up a lot when everything is considered as one package. The lower cost of lithium batteries and solar panels partially offset the increased cost of controllers and copper wire.

The more nuanced answer is, it depends on each person’s individual situation. If money is tight and you’re already paying more for for everything else necessary for daily life, then even a modest increase in prices for off grid gear may be a deal breaker. Still, off grid power for amateur radio is one of the few things that hasn’t been beaten too hard by inflation. If you’ve been holding off due to perceived concerns about cost, it is worthwhile to take the time to research hard numbers. You might be surprised at how affordable it can be.